Review forecast numbers very inaccurate

In general I have found the Review Forecast to be very inaccurate. Yesterday the review forecast said I would have 533 reviews today.
Today I have 203 reviews. Selecting “Include Today” on the forecast continues to show 533 reviews for today.
I have double-checked my time zone to ensure it is set correctly.

After this is corrected, a wish-list item would be to have the forecast indicate how many 25/50/75/100 percent reviews were included in each day.

UPDATE: After doing all my reviews today with zero remaining, my Review Forecast tells me I have 337 reviews for today.

My vague impression is that the review forecast tells you how many reviews should come up in a 24 hour period to midnight in your time zone, but reviews are released at one time only (about 2pm my time) and won’t include anything that becomes eligible for review after that time.

e.g. If I play a new sentence at 4pm on Monday, the review forecast will show that it’s due for review on Tuesday, but it won’t actually be released until 2pm Wednesday.

It may be more complicated than this!